Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics.

Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.

Identification of patients with type 2 diabetes with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease who are at increased risk of progressing to advanced fibrosis: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Identification of advanced hepatic fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is important as this may progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The risk of hepatic fibrosis is especially high among patients with diabetes with NAFLD. Annual screening of patients with diabetes for fatty liver and calculation of Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score and exclusion of significant fibrosis with vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) have been recommended. However, VCTE is expensive and may not be freely available in resource-limited settings. We aim to identify predictors of significant liver fibrosis who are at increased risk of progression to advanced liver fibrosis and to develop a prediction model to prioritise referral of patients with diabetes and NAFLD for VCTE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This cross-sectional study is conducted among all consenting adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus with NAFLD at the Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka. All patients get the FIB-4 score calculated. Those with FIB-4 ≥1.3 undergo VCTE (with FibroScan by Echosens). Risk associations for progression to advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis will be identified by comparing patients with significant fibrosis (liver stiffness measure (LSM) ≥8 kPa) and without significant fibrosis (LSM <8 kPa). A model to predict significant liver fibrosis will be developed using logistic regression. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya (P/66/07/2021). Results of the study will be disseminated as scientific publications in reputable journals.

Geographically regulated designs of incidence surveys can match the precision of classical survey designs whilst requiring smaller sample sizes: the case of snakebite envenoming in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease. Data from the worst affected countries are limited because conducting epidemiological surveys is challenging. We assessed the utility of inhibitory geostatistical design with close pairs (ICP) to estimate snakebite envenoming incidence. METHODS: The National Snakebite Survey (NSS) in Sri Lanka adopted a multistage cluster sampling design, based on population distribution, targeting 1% of the country's population. Using a simulation-based study, we assessed predictive efficiency of ICP against a classical survey design at different fractions of the original sample size of the NSS. We also assessed travel distance, time taken to complete the survey, and sensitivity and specificity for detecting high-risk areas for snake envenoming, when using these methods. RESULTS: A classical survey design with 33% of the original NSS sample size was able to yield a similar predictive efficiency. ICP yielded the same at 25% of the NSS sample size, a 25% reduction in sample size compared with a classical survey design. ICP showed >80% sensitivity and specificity for detecting high-risk areas of envenoming when the sampling fraction was >20%. When ICP was adopted with 25% of the original NSS sample size, travel distance was reduced by >40% and time to conduct the survey was reduced by >75%. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that snakebite envenoming incidence can be estimated by adopting an ICP design with similar precision at a lower sample size than a classical design. This would substantially save resources and time taken to conduct epidemiological surveys and may be suited for low-resource settings.

Emerging inflammatory bowel disease demographics, phenotype, and treatment in South Asia, South-East Asia, and Middle East: Preliminary findings from the Inflammatory Bowel Disease-Emerging Nations' Consortium.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is emerging in the newly industrialized countries of South Asia, South-East Asia, and the Middle East, yet epidemiological data are scarce. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of IBD demographics, disease phenotype, and treatment across 38 centers in 15 countries of South Asia, South-East Asia, and Middle East. Intergroup comparisons included gross national income (GNI) per capita. RESULTS: Among 10 400 patients, ulcerative colitis (UC) was twice as common as Crohn's disease (CD), with a male predominance (UC 6678, CD 3495, IBD unclassified 227, and 58% male). Peak age of onset was in the third decade, with a low proportion of elderly-onset IBD (5% age > 60). Familial IBD was rare (5%). The extent of UC was predominantly distal (proctitis/left sided 67%), with most being treated with mesalamine (94%), steroids (54%), or immunomodulators (31%). Ileocolic CD (43%) was the commonest, with low rates of perianal disease (8%) and only 6% smokers. Diagnostic delay for CD was common (median 12 months; interquartile range 5-30). Treatment of CD included mesalamine, steroids, and immunomodulators (61%, 51%, and 56%, respectively), but a fifth received empirical antitubercular therapy. Treatment with biologics was uncommon (4% UC and 13% CD), which increased in countries with higher GNI per capita. Surgery rates were 0.1 (UC) and 2 (CD) per 100 patients per year. CONCLUSIONS: The IBD-ENC cohort provides insight into IBD in South-East Asia and the Middle East, but is not yet population based. UC is twice as common as CD, familial disease is uncommon, and rates of surgery are low. Biologic use correlates with per capita GNI.

Incidence and prevalence of alcoholic fatty liver disease: a prospective, community-based study among adult Sri Lankans.

Background: Data on the alcoholic fatty liver (AFL) is limited. Therefore, we investigated alcohol use and AFL patterns among urban, adult Sri Lankans. Methods: The study population (selected by age-stratified random sampling) was screened in 2007 (35-64 years) and re-evaluated in 2014. They were assessed by structured interviews, anthropometric measurements, liver-ultrasound, and biochemical and serological tests. AFL was diagnosed on ultrasound criteria, 'unsafe' alcohol consumption (Asian standards: males>14units, females>7units per week) and absence of hepatitis B/C markers. Controls were unsafe alcohol consumers who had no fatty liver on ultrasound. Results: 2985/3012 (99%) had complete data for analysis. 272/2985 (9.1%) were unsafe-drinkers in 2007 [males-270; mean-age-51.9, SD-8.0 years]. 86/272 (31.6%) had AFL [males-85; mean-age-50.2, SD-8.6 years]. Males [p<0.001], increased waist circumference (WC) [OR 4.9, p<0.01] and BMI>23kg/m2 [OR 3.5, p<0.01] and raised alanine aminotransferase (ALT) [OR 2.8, p<0.01] were independently associated with AFL. 173/272 (63.6%) unsafe alcohol consumers from 2007 were re-evaluated in 2014. 134/173 had either had AFL or had changed to 'safe' or no alcohol consumption. 21/39 (53.8%) [males-21 (100%), mean-age-57.9, SD-7.9 years] who remained 'unsafe' alcohol users who had no fatty liver in 2007 developed AFL after 7-years (annual incidence 7.7%). On bivariate analysis, only males were associated with new-onset AFL. Of the 42 who had AFL at baseline but changed their drinking status from unsafe to safe or no alcohol, 6 had resolution of fatty liver in 2014. Conclusion: In conclusion, in this community-based study among urban Sri Lankan adults, the annual incidence of AFL among unsafe alcohol users was 7.7%. Furthermore, new-onset AFL was associated with males.

Evaluating spatiotemporal dynamics of snakebite in Sri Lanka: Monthly incidence mapping from a national representative survey sample.

BACKGROUND: Snakebite incidence shows both spatial and temporal variation. However, no study has evaluated spatiotemporal patterns of snakebites across a country or region in detail. We used a nationally representative population sample to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka. METHODOLOGY: We conducted a community-based cross-sectional survey representing all nine provinces of Sri Lanka. We interviewed 165 665 people (0.8% of the national population), and snakebite events reported by the respondents were recorded. Sri Lanka is an agricultural country; its central, southern and western parts receive rain mainly from Southwest monsoon (May to September) and northern and eastern parts receive rain mainly from Northeast monsoon (November to February). We developed spatiotemporal models using multivariate Poisson process modelling to explain monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in the country. These models were developed at the provincial level to explain local spatiotemporal patterns. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Snakebites and envenomings showed clear spatiotemporal patterns. Snakebite hotspots were found in North-Central, North-West, South-West and Eastern Sri Lanka. They exhibited biannual seasonal patterns except in South-Western inlands, which showed triannual seasonality. Envenoming hotspots were confined to North-Central, East and South-West parts of the country. Hotspots in North-Central regions showed triannual seasonal patterns and South-West regions had annual patterns. Hotspots remained persistent throughout the year in Eastern regions. The overall monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in Sri Lanka were 39 (95%CI: 38-40) and 19 (95%CI: 13-30) per 100 000, respectively, translating into 110 000 (95%CI: 107 500-112 500) snakebites and 45 000 (95%CI: 32 000-73 000) envenomings in a calendar year. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides information on community-based monthly incidence of snakebites and envenomings over the whole country. Thus, it provides useful insights into healthcare decision-making, such as, prioritizing locations to establish specialized centres for snakebite management and allocating resources based on risk assessments which take into account both location and season.

Outcomes of NAFLD and MAFLD: Results from a community-based, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The term "metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease" (MAFLD) is suggested alternative for "non-alcoholic fatty liver disease" (NAFLD), as it better reflects metabolic dysfunction. No study has compared outcomes of the two diagnostic criteria. METHODS: In an ongoing, community-based, cohort-study in suburban Sri Lanka, participants were randomly selected in 2007. They were reassessed in 2014 to evaluate new-onset metabolic traits (MTs) and cardiovascular-events (CVEs). Baseline characteristics, MTs and CVEs after 7-years were compared in NAFLD and MAFLD and vs. controls. Similarly, we compared these parameters in those excluded by the NAFLD definition but captured by the MAFLD definition and vice versa, and vs. controls. FINDINGS: Of 2985 recruited in 2007, 940 (31.5%) had NAFLD, 990 (33.1%) had MAFLD and 362 (12.1%) were controls. When compared to NAFLD, MAFLD captured an additional 2.9% and lost 1.3% individuals. At baseline, anthropometric and metabolic traits were similar in NAFLD and MAFLD. At follow-up in 7-years, the risk of having new-onset MTs and fatal/non-fatal CVEs were similar in the groups, but were significantly higher compared to controls. Those excluded by the NAFLD definition but captured by the MAFLD definition showed higher baseline MTs compared to those excluded by the MAFLD definition but captured by the NAFLD definition, and had substantially higher risk for having new-onset MTs and CVEs compared to controls. INTERPRETATION: Although NAFLD and MAFLD had similar MTs at baseline, and similar outcomes after 7-years, those who were excluded by the NAFLD definition but captured by the MAFLD definition seem at higher risk of adverse outcomes than those excluded by the MAFLD definition but captured by the NAFLD definition. Although the increase in the index population was small, redefining NAFLD as MAFLD seemed to improve clinical utility.

Physical Activity Tracking Among Sri Lankan Adults: Findings From a 7-Year Follow-up of the Ragama Health Study.

Limited data are available on physical activity tracking among adults in low- and middle-income countries. Using a longitudinal design, we assessed trends and correlates of physical activity among Sri Lankan adults. Individuals selected through age-stratified random sampling, were screened initially in 2007 (n = 2986) and reevaluated in 2014 (n = 2148). On both occasions, structured interviews and clinical measurements were completed. Approximately 40% of the participants engaged in recommended levels of physical activity both at baseline and follow-up. One-fifth reported increased physical activity at follow-up, a similar proportion reported being persistently inactive or a reduction in physical activity. In the adjusted analysis, being persistently active was associated with male sex, a lower educational level and income, being free of any chronic disease conditions, better self-rated health, and sitting time <8 hours. Our findings support public health interventions to help maintain recommended physical activity levels over time, particularly for subgroups at high-risk of physical inactivity.

The clinical utility of accurate NAFLD ultrasound grading: Results from a community-based, prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite its widespread use there is no consensus on ultrasound criteria to diagnose fatty liver. METHOD: In an ongoing, cohort-study, participants were initially screened in 2007 and reassessed in 2014 by interview, anthropometric measurements, liver ultrasonography, and blood tests. We evaluated utility of increased hepatic echogenicity alone (intermediate) compared to using additional criteria which included signal attenuation and/or vascular blunting along with increase of hepatic echogenicity (moderate-severe), to diagnose fatty liver in NAFLD. We made a comparison of the two radiologically defined groups, in order to choose a classification method for NAFLD, which may better predict baseline adverse metabolic traits (MT), and adverse metabolic and cardiovascular events (CVE) after 7-year of follow-up. RESULTS: Of 2985 recruited in 2007, 940 (31.5 %) had moderate-severe NAFLD, 595 (19.9 %) intermediate NAFLD, and 957 (32.1 %) were controls (no fatty liver). 2148 (71.9 %) attended follow-up in 2014; they included 708 who had moderate-severe NAFLD, 446 intermediate NAFLD and 674 controls, at baseline (in 2007). At baseline, adverse anthropometric indices and MTs were significantly higher in both moderate-severe NAFLD and intermediate NAFLD compared to controls, except for low HDL. They were commoner in moderate-severe NAFLD than in intermediate NAFLD. After seven years, the odds of developing new-onset metabolic traits and CVEs were significantly higher compared to controls only in moderate-severe NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: Only moderate-severe NAFLD predicted risk of incident adverse MTs and CVEs. However, both moderate-severe and intermediate NAFLD were associated with higher prevalence of adverse anthropometric and metabolic traits, thereby identifying individuals who need medical intervention even among those with milder degrees of fatty liver. We therefore recommend using increased hepatic echogenicity, and not only the more stringent criteria (which include signal attenuation and/or vascular blunting), for the diagnosis of fatty liver in individuals with NAFLD.

Integrating human behavior and snake ecology with agent-based models to predict snakebite in high risk landscapes.

Snakebite causes more than 1.8 million envenoming cases annually and is a major cause of death in the tropics especially for poor farmers. While both social and ecological factors influence the chance encounter between snakes and people, the spatio-temporal processes underlying snakebites remain poorly explored. Previous research has focused on statistical correlates between snakebites and ecological, sociological, or environmental factors, but the human and snake behavioral patterns that drive the spatio-temporal process have not yet been integrated into a single model. Here we use a bottom-up simulation approach using agent-based modelling (ABM) parameterized with datasets from Sri Lanka, a snakebite hotspot, to characterise the mechanisms of snakebite and identify risk factors. Spatio-temporal dynamics of snakebite risks are examined through the model incorporating six snake species and three farmer types (rice, tea, and rubber). We find that snakebites are mainly climatically driven, but the risks also depend on farmer types due to working schedules as well as species present in landscapes. Snake species are differentiated by both distribution and by habitat preference, and farmers are differentiated by working patterns that are climatically driven, and the combination of these factors leads to unique encounter rates for different landcover types as well as locations. Validation using epidemiological studies demonstrated that our model can explain observed patterns, including temporal patterns of snakebite incidence, and relative contribution of bites by each snake species. Our predictions can be used to generate hypotheses and inform future studies and decision makers. Additionally, our model is transferable to other locations with high snakebite burden as well.

Patterns and predictors of mortality in a semi-urban population-based cohort in Sri Lanka: findings from the Ragama Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns and predictors of mortality in a semi-urban population in Sri Lanka. DESIGN: A prospective population-based cohort study. SETTING: Ragama Medical Officer of Health area in the Gampaha district, Sri Lanka. PARTICIPANTS: Adults between 35 and 64 years of age were recruited using an age stratified random sampling technique in 2007. MEASURES: At baseline, we recorded socio-demographic, lifestyle, anthropometric, biochemical and clinical data of the participants. Over 10 years, we obtained the cause and date of death from the death registration documents of deceased participants. We determined the survival probability of the cohort over 10 years and estimated Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality (ACM), cardiovascular mortality (CVM) and cancer-related mortality (CRM) using Cox's proportional hazards model. We also estimated the survival probabilities for men and women in each 10-year age group and standardised mortality ratio relative to the source population. RESULTS: There were 169 deaths over 10 years with standardised mortality rates of 5.3 and 2.4 per 1000 years of follow-up for men and women, respectively. Independent predictors of: ACM were older age, lower income, smoking and diabetes mellitus while gender, education, occupation, harmful alcohol use, waist circumference and hypertension were not; CVM were older age, lower income, smoking, diabetes and hypertension while gender and harmful alcohol use were not; CRM was older age while gender, smoking and diabetes were not. Those engaged in clerical and technical occupations or unemployed had a lower risk of CRM as compared with those engaged in elementary occupations. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, lower income, smoking, diabetes and hypertension strongly predict mortality in this cohort. Addressing the identified modifiable predictors through behavioural modification will improve longevity in similar populations.

An epidemiological model to aid decision-making for COVID-19 control in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Sri Lanka diagnosed its first local case of COVID-19 on 11 March 2020. The government acted swiftly to contain transmission, with extensive public health measures. At the end of 30 days, Sri Lanka had 197 cases, 54 recovered and 7 deaths; a staged relaxing of the lockdown is now underway. This paper proposes a theoretical basis for estimating the limits within which transmission should be constrained in order to ensure that the case load remains within the capacity of Sri Lanka's health system. METHODS: We used the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model to explore the number of new infections and estimate ICU bed requirement at different levels of R0 values after lifting lockdown restrictions. We developed a web-based application that enables visualization of cases and ICU bed requirements with time, with adjustable parameters that include: population at risk; number of identified and recovered cases; percentage identified; infectious period; R0 or doubling time; percentage critically ill; available ICU beds; duration of ICU stay; and uncertainty of projection. RESULTS: The three-day moving average of the caseload suggested two waves of transmission from Day 0 to 17 (R0 = 3.32, 95% CI 1.85-5.41) and from Day 18-30 (R = 1.25, 95%CI: 0.93-1.63). We estimate that if there are 156 active cases with 91 recovered at the time of lifting lockdown restrictions, and R increases to 1.5 (doubling time 19 days), under the standard parameters for Sri Lanka, the ICU bed capacity of 300 is likely to be saturated by about 100 days, signaled by 18 new infections (95% CI 15-22) on Day 14 after lifting lockdown restrictions. CONCLUSION: Our model suggests that to ensure that the case load remains within the available capacity of the health system after lifting lockdown restrictions, transmission should not exceed R = 1.5. This model and the web-based application may be useful in other low and middle income countries which have similar constraints on health resources.

Adjusting for spatial variation when assessing individual-level risk: A case-study in the epidemiology of snake-bite in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Health outcomes and causality are usually assessed with individual level sociodemographic variables. Studies that consider only individual-level variables can suffer from residual confounding. This can result in individual variables that are unrelated to risk behaving as proxies for uncaptured information. There is a scarcity of literature on risk factors for snakebite. In this study, we evaluate the individual-level risk factors of snakebite in Sri Lanka and highlight the impact of spatial confounding on determining the individual-level risk effects. METHODS: Data was obtained from the National Snakebite Survey of Sri Lanka. This was an Island-wide community-based survey. The survey sampled 165,665 individuals from all 25 districts of the country. We used generalized linear models to identify individual-level factors that contribute to an individual's risk of experiencing a snakebite event. We fitted separate models to assess risk factors with and without considering spatial variation in snakebite incidence in the country. RESULTS: Both spatially adjusted and non-adjusted models revealed that middle-aged people, males, field workers and individuals with low level of education have high risk of snakebites. The model without spatial adjustment showed an interaction between ethnicity and income levels. When the model included a spatial adjustment for the overall snakebite incidence, this interaction disappeared and income level appeared as an independent risk factor. Both models showed similar effect sizes for gender and age. HEmployment and education showed lower effect sizes in the spatially adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: Both individual-level characteristics and local snakebite incidence are important to determine snakebite risk at a given location. Individual level variables could act as proxies for underling residual spatial variation when environmental information is not considered. This can lead to misinterpretation of risk factors and biased estimates of effect sizes. Both individual-level and environmental variables are important in assessing causality in epidemiological studies.

Genetic associations of inflammatory bowel disease in a South Asian population.

AIM: To estimate prevalence and phenotypic associations of selected inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)-associated genetic variants among Sri Lankan patients. METHODS: A case study of histologically confirmed ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD) patients with ≥ 1 year disease duration, who were compared to unrelated, gender-matched, healthy individuals as controls, was conducted at four major centers in Sri Lanka. Phenotypic data of the cases were obtained and all participants were genotyped for 16 selected genetic variants: IL12B:rs1045431, IL23R:rs11805303, ARPC2:rs12612347, IRGM:rs13361189, IL26/IL22:rs1558744, CDH1:rs1728785, IL10:rs3024505, FCGR2A:rs3737240, PTGER4:rs4613763, IL17REL/PIM3:rs5771069, HNF4a:rs6017342, STAT3:rs744166, SMURF1:rs7809799, LAMB1:rs886774, HLA-DRB5, DQA1, DRB1, DRA:rs9268853, MST1, UBA7, and APEH:rs9822268. The genotypes of all variants were in Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (P > 10-3). To account for multiple hypothesis testing, P-values < 0.003 were considered significant. RESULTS: A total of 415 patients and 465 controls were recruited. Out of the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tested, the majority were not associated with IBD in Sri Lankans. Significant positive associations were noted between rs886774 (LAMB1-gene) and UC (odds ratio (OR) = 1.42, P = 0.001). UC patients with rs886774 had mild disease (OR = 1.66, P < 0.001) and remained in remission (OR = 1.48, P < 0.001). A positive association was noted between rs10045431 (IL 12B gene) and upper gastrointestinal involvement in CD (OR = 4.76, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: This confirms the heterogeneity of allelic mutations in South Asians compared to Caucasians. Most SNPs and disease associations reported here have not been described in South Asians.

Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: the potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change.

Background: Snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that has been overlooked by healthcare decision makers in many countries. Previous studies have reported seasonal variation in hospital admission rates due to snakebites in endemic countries including Sri Lanka, but seasonal patterns have not been investigated in detail. Methods: A national community-based survey was conducted during the period of August 2012 to June 2013. The survey used a multistage cluster design, sampled 165 665 individuals living in 44 136 households and recorded all recalled snakebite events that had occurred during the preceding year. Log-linear models were fitted to describe the expected number of snakebites occurring in each month, taking into account seasonal trends and weather conditions, and addressing the effects of variation in survey effort during the study and of recall bias amongst survey respondents. Results: Snakebite events showed a clear seasonal variation. Typically, snakebite incidence is highest during November-December followed by March-May and August, but this can vary between years due to variations in relative humidity, which is also a risk factor. Low relative-humidity levels are associated with high snakebite incidence. If current climate-change projections are correct, this could lead to an increase in the annual snakebite burden of 31.3% (95% confidence interval: 10.7-55.7) during the next 25-50 years. Conclusions: Snakebite in Sri Lanka shows seasonal variation. Additionally, more snakebites can be expected during periods of lower-than-expected humidity. Global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of snakebite in Sri Lanka.

The association between new generation oral contraceptive pill and the development of inflammatory bowel diseases.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To examine the association between use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) and the risk of developing inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), in a modern cohort. METHODS: A prospective nested case-control study across sites in the Asia-Pacific region was conducted; involving female IBD cases and asymptomatic controls. Subjects completed a questionnaire addressing questions related to OCP use. Primary outcome was the risk of development of IBD of those exposed to OCP versus non-exposure. Secondary outcomes were development of Crohn's disease (CD) versus ulcerative colitis (UC), and whether age of first use of OCP use may be associated with risk of IBD. RESULTS: Three hundred and forty-eight female IBD cases (41% CD, median age: 43 years) and 590 female age-matched controls were recruited. No significant association was found between OCP use and the risk of IBD (odds ratio [OR], 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-3.13; P=0.22), CD (OR, 1.55) or UC (OR, 1.01). The lack of association persisted when results were adjusted for age and smoking. IBD cases commenced OCP use at a younger age than controls (18 years vs. 20 years, P=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of subjects from the Asia-Pacific region, we found a modest but not significantly increased risk of developing IBD amongst OCP users.

Health seeking behavior following snakebites in Sri Lanka: Results of an island wide community based survey.

INTRODUCTION: Sri Lanka has a population of 21 million and about 80,000 snakebites occur annually. However, there are limited data on health seeking behavior following bites. We investigated the effects of snakebite and envenoming on health seeking behavior in Sri Lanka. METHODS: In a community-based island-wide survey conducted in Sri Lanka 44,136 households were sampled using a multistage cluster sampling method. An individual who reported experiencing a snakebite within the preceding 12 months was considered a case. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to obtain details of the bite and health seeking behavior among cases. RESULTS: Among 165,665 individuals surveyed, there were 695 snakebite victims. 682 (98.1%) had sought health care after the bite; 381 (54.8%) sought allopathic treatment and 301 (43.3%) sought traditional treatment. 323 (46.5%) had evidence of probable envenoming, among them 227 (70.3%) sought allopathic treatment, 94 (29.1%) sought traditional treatment and 2 did not seek treatment. There was wide geographic variation in the proportion of seeking allopathic treatment from <20% in the Western province to > 90% in the Northern province. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that seeking allopathic treatment was independently associated with being systemically envenomed (Odds Ratio = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.36-2.90, P < 0.001), distance to the healthcare facility (OR = 1.13 per kilometer, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.17, P < 0.001), time duration from the bite (OR = 0.49 per day, 95% CI: 0.29-0.74, P = 0.002), and the local incidence of envenoming (OR = 1.31 for each 50 per 100,000, 95% CI: 1.19-1.46, P < 0.001) and snakebite (OR = 0.90 for each 50 per 100,000, 95% CI: 0.85-0.94, P < 0.001) in the relevant geographic area. CONCLUSIONS: In Sri Lanka, both allopathic and traditional treatments are sought following snakebite. The presence of probable envenoming was a major contribution to seeking allopathic treatment.

Possible gasoline-induced chronic liver injury due to occupational malpractice in a motor mechanic: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Hydrocarbon-induced occupational liver injury is a well-known clinical entity among petroleum industry workers. There are many types of hydrocarbon exposure, with inhalation being the most common. Hydrocarbon-induced occupational liver injury is a rarely suspected and commonly missed etiological agent for liver injury. We report a case of a non-petroleum industry worker with chronic liver disease secondary to hydrocarbon-induced occupational liver injury caused by chronic low-grade hydrocarbon ingestion due to occupational malpractice. CASE PRESENTATION: A 23-year-old Sri Lankan man who was a motor mechanic presented to our hospital with decompensated cirrhosis. He had been chronically exposed to gasoline via inadvertent ingestion due to occupational malpractice. He used to remove gasoline from carburetors by sucking and failed to practice mouth washing thereafter. On evaluation, he had histologically proven established cirrhosis. A comprehensive history and workup ruled out other nonoccupational etiologies for cirrhosis. The patient's long-term occupational gasoline exposure and clinical course led us to a diagnosis of hydrocarbon-induced occupational liver injury leading to decompensated cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Hydrocarbon-induced occupational liver injury should be considered as a cause when evaluating a patient with liver injury with possible exposure in relevant occupations.